The Five Rules of Risk

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Wendover Productions

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Animation by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther (
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Music by
Select footage courtesy the AP Archive

Wendover Productions
Wendover Productions Prieš 9 mėnesių
We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.
John Manno
John Manno Prieš 19 dienų
Excellent video, mostly. A quick comment about the final image in the video: assessing risk requires lots of data gathered over long periods of time. Without such data, good, solid, unambiguous data, it's impossible to assess risk, unless one makes assumptions; which, as you pointed out, are nearly always wrong. So when it comes to a new threat, the risks involved take a very long time to be made clear. "Erring on the side of caution" can be a good and useful rule of thumb, but exactly what "caution" is depends on those very assessments of risk that more often than not are unclear, highly debatable, or open to interpretation. Moreover, as many of these comments show, exactly how one is to interpret statistical data can be complicated in itself, adding further to the difficulty of assessing risk.
Paulo Martins
Paulo Martins Prieš mėn
I was going to note that one.
Steezboy3000 Prieš 2 mėnesius
You also didnt include the incredibly high risk of injury with mountain biking. Just because its not fatal doesnt mean it doesnt carry significant risks. Chopping a finger off probably carries a relatively low risk of death, doesnt mean its safe or that the outcome doesnt matter just because its not death.
TAILƎS LUONG Prieš 2 mėnesius
I was like Damn I'm never driving again
Hashim Mir
Hashim Mir Prieš 2 mėnesius
Even 1:6000 is overstates the risk of driving. In what % of these fatalities was the driver drunk or sleepy or tired? You have to exclude that number, since in the common case of getting in your car you're none of those things, and certainly were factoring that in to our risk assessment.
Jordan Walters
Jordan Walters Prieš 4 dienas
1 in 55,000 chance of dying for walking outside is way lower than the 1 in 1 chance of dying of thirst or starvation by never going outside. Also, someone's life could be worth an infinite amount and they would still choose to go outside because by doing so they are participating in their life while wrapping yourself in bubble wrap and hiding in your bath tub to minimize chance of death would mean no longer living your life so at that point you may as well just end it as it is already over. I'm not trying to poke holes in your logic just trying to prove you can't make the messy human experience logical. But if the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct then you really don't need to worry since every time you die there will be a world where you didn't and if dead people don't know they're dead then you'll always know you're alive. Although this doesn't save other peoples lives because when they die the version that lived is now in a separate version of your universe, but as long as you are alive you can rest easy knowing you're not dead, and if a version of you has died then you can rest easy not knowing a version of you is still alive.
cutscene 1985
cutscene 1985 Prieš 7 dienų
You have to take into account skill. Ppl can drive well but bike up and down a mountain poorly. Odds are uniform
Will Keve
Will Keve Prieš 9 dienų
Take Australia, fortify into large piles at your borders. Don't over extend. Never attack with just two units unless you must. Plan your attack turns around finishing risk card hands. Always ensure you have a country to take each turn to get a risk card.
Anthony Ege KOPRİ
Anthony Ege KOPRİ Prieš 10 dienų
First minute and I already got Agoraphobia from this vid, lets go!
Debjit Das
Debjit Das Prieš 10 dienų
jokes on you, im a paraplegic
Adrian Nel
Adrian Nel Prieš 10 dienų
Who is worried about walking down a street? The same people who are worried that their pet goldfish might splash water onto the floor and they will slip and die as a result.
Alistair McCutcheon
Alistair McCutcheon Prieš 15 dienų
To be fair, the risk of the unknown (at the time, nuclear power) is, well, unknown. Because of ignorance, nuclear power, in their minds, could potentially have the capacity to kill everyone on Earth because the non-experts didn't know enough about it to confidently say otherwise. We accept nuclear power now because there is a more widespread understanding of the actual level of risk (extremely low). If you didn't know anything about nuclear power apart from the name, you would be foolish not to put it on the top of the list because you didn't know enough about it. The scientists on the Manhatten Project gave a non-zero chance of the first atomic bomb igniting the atmosphere, killing everyone on Earth because it was an unknown - people didn't know anything enough about it.
Rupesh Tashildar
Rupesh Tashildar Prieš 17 dienų
that's the worst possible explanation for risk, sorry but you've confused more people than you've clarified
H T Prieš 18 dienų
Here is a very cynical way to see the value of life graph: Some would argue, that when a few unrelated people die on a plane crash or terror attack, then they leave behind many of their closest friends and family in grief, but on the other hand at a genocide there are fewer people in grief left behind, because thes are killed too. Well thats of course an absolute bizarre argument, but just from a rational perspective...
Adamd Prieš 19 dienų
What the video fails to mention is that stats (odds) depend on sample sizes. For example, if mountin biking were as common as driving, odds of death my increase.
Sam R
Sam R Prieš 19 dienų
You're talking about cars and I'm like I hate cars I know how bad they are and how deadly #anticar so when you said mountain biking and I was like oooh and it was funny with the one in thirty thousand
Tyler Doolittle
Tyler Doolittle Prieš 19 dienų
2:54 But there are more drivers than there are mountain bikers and more people driving cars than mountain biking at a particular time. So theres a higher chance that someone in a car is going to die because there are more people doing it at a given time. So, comparing mountain biking to driving a car wont work, it should be the car-airplane statistic
Adamd Prieš 19 dienų
Exactly. This is basic statistics, I'm surprised he made that error
Phlegethon Prieš 19 dienų
This mountain biking analogy is wrong. More skilled people choose to mountain bike while driving has a lot more amateurs so it looks like it’s lower accident. Driving is almost required for certain people so it has to be taught. Plus you probably won’t die in a mountain biking accident.
10K Entertainment
10K Entertainment Prieš 20 dienų
J PF Prieš 21 dieną
This guy does not understand suicidal ideation
33moneyball Prieš 21 dieną
Your individual risk isn’t accurately captured by any of the generic 1 in X. There are so many variables that influence exactly where you might fall on the spectrum. A human, all things being equal, might have that 1 in X risk but all things are never equal. In an Actuarial sense with a massive sample size these might help you price risk and make money but they’re meaningless to an individual person.
Idaho River House
Idaho River House Prieš 23 dienas
I enjoy your videos however, infinity times zero is zero. 🙄
mark wackerman
mark wackerman Prieš 24 dienas
No, this episode was bad. The data didn't make sense, and you forgot about conditional probability
MrLlamasKid Prieš 24 dienas
All calculated risks are models with finite variables. Sample size of mountain bikers, their demographic, their extra carefulness, etc. are distinct from the multitude of drivers +65, sleep deprived, careless. These simplified factored analyses don’t actually answer anything, risk generalized has no effect on the risk of the a single data point/ a single individual.
grafknives Prieš 28 dienų
There is one more thing about risk of driving. It is the amount of hours we spend in that activity. If we go mountain biking a few times a year, and we drive 10hours a WEEK, than comparing year to year is not correct way
Paulo Martins
Paulo Martins Prieš mėn
That last frame of maskless people amidst a crowd. The irony of it all is that given the level of protection most masks offers isn't all that high - when compared to professional i.e. expensive and scarce alternatives - and when the density of humans per square foot increases past a certain threshold, it's main function becomes not that of protecting the user but the beholder, the neighbour, the fellow citizen, the human right next to you riding the subway that you'll likely never see again in your life - acting as a shield against large particles that me, and you emite at any given time, coughing, sneezing, talking and breathing. Recall a very famous line from "300", as I parafrase "the shield I yield guards not my life, but the life to my left and the shield to my left its left in an unbroken line of shield and spear we stand", something like that, the concept is very much the same. You see I've come to realize that there can never be a point beyond what is already obvious and beyond repair, that if were I to be infected I could actively protect the people with which I have already crossed paths and sown the seeds of desease unknowingly. So I wear a mask proud, I wear it consciously and refrain from taking it off in the proximity of acquaintances and strangers, not because I am a stuck up sheep of sorts like some would say, but because you matter, your loved ones matter, everyone matters. Love your show, thought I'd share. Stay safe.
Jerry Wang
Jerry Wang Prieš mėn
1/600 seems really high. That mean if someone drives for 60 years they will have a 10% chance of dying from a crash
Andrej Nestorovski
Andrej Nestorovski Prieš mėn
I believe there is mistake in the math by 10x. There are 227 500 000 licensed drivers in the US and 38 800 road fatalities in 2019. 227,500,000÷38,800 = 5863. Odds of death are 1 in 5863 per year. The odds are even lower as these numbers include passangers and pedestrian deaths as well, not just the ones of licensed drivers.
Gabriel B
Gabriel B Prieš mėn
But i'm sure the rate of non fatal injury is sky high compared to non fatal injury in mountain biking! That's why parents are afraid, not because of the low death rate!
Norrotaku Prieš mėn
this hits different in the midst of a pandemic
Simon Schulze
Simon Schulze Prieš mėn
I’ve never been like this... To me, entering a car is far scarier than mountainbiking because I’m aware of the risk, as are most people, yet their actions will reflect the opposite. It’s been my quest for many years now to figure out why everyone I know is so incredibly irrational... I’m not sure I will ever succeed. I guess a more useful question would be why I’m different, but would I want to hear the answer?
thịnh trịnh tuấn
thịnh trịnh tuấn Prieš mėn
You did not think about things like, most of car drivers are average person and most of mountain bikers are fucking monster athlete have a bull size of heart to endure stress while biking, so they don't die while do so. Statistics just show correlation, not define the meaning of things.
Robert Andrews
Robert Andrews Prieš mėn
Driver is more dangerous because of other people. That dumass that can't stop checking their phone for the most urgent of things, someone liking their picture or post, or people doing makeup or eating or really anything besides focusing on the road. Mountain biking is basically free from someone else impacting you. Only your actions will effect you, unless your in a densely packed group and someone crashes but I would imagine most keep some distance and have smaller groups if not just being by themselves. Man is the most dangerous game, it is and always will be true.
Gembly Prieš mėn
yo Sam I don't walk outside
RoAnnon Prieš mėn
Came expecting a video about playing the boardgame... left disappointed :(
ADUBS animation
ADUBS animation Prieš mėn
Wait I thought he meant the game risk
Halbeard Prieš mėn
Sam taking the risk of making mathematical arguments without applying math properly
Etu Suku
Etu Suku Prieš mėn
Walking outside gives value.
Hannes Rodriguez
Hannes Rodriguez Prieš mėn
The Tesla cyber truck outline I'm gone
Beat Bank
Beat Bank Prieš mėn
1:37 I need someone who's good at geoguessr to tell me where the fuck this place is
Alex Sanders
Alex Sanders Prieš mėn
i thought this was about the fckin game :(
Quirktart Prieš mėn
1. Select a color and, depending on the number of players, count out the "armies" you'll need to start the game. 2. Roll one die. Whoever rolls the highest number takes one Infantry piece from his or her pile and places it onto any territory on the board, thus claiming that territory. 3. Starting to the left of the first player, in turn, everyone places one army onto any unoccupied territory. Continue until all 42 territories have been claimed. 4. After all 42 territories are claimed, each player in turn places one additional army onto any territory he or she already occupies. 5. Continue in this way until everyone has run out of armies. There is no limit to the number of armies you may place onto a single territory. 6. Shuffle the pack of RISK cards (maybe, remove the Mission cards) and place the cards face down by the side of the board. This pack forms the draw pile.
Ape X
Ape X Prieš mėn
Idc, what will happen will happen. Its best to live a good life, not long life
Bálica Dávid
Bálica Dávid Prieš mėn
Me inside my house: In terms of risk we have no risk.
Electric Midnight
Electric Midnight Prieš mėn
00:08 - 00:54 My brain explaining to me why i shouldn't exercise
ryan partlan
ryan partlan Prieš mėn
as a mountain biker, i love the mountain biking example!
baylinkdashyt Prieš mėn
You got some words wrong, too, sadly. Risk isn't the balance. *Risk is the negatives*. Specifically, it's the product of cost and probability. The positives are "reward". It's balancing the two that humans generally suck at.
Logan Kotter
Logan Kotter Prieš mėn
I saw the dice and thought this would be about Yahtzee...
H Meric
H Meric Prieš mėn
"Why do you walk outside?" I don't
Primoz Ivancic
Primoz Ivancic Prieš mėn
Isn't another reason to take risk because there is no other choice - eg. going outside being infinitely bad is still less than starving infinitely bad
Orange Pie
Orange Pie Prieš mėn
We also have to take into account there are hundreds of millions of fewer people mountain biking than driving and the type of people who are mountain biking.
Aaryan Jain
Aaryan Jain Prieš mėn
Aren't rules 2 and 5 in contradiction?
anna rams
anna rams Prieš mėn
When the video changes your outlook on cars...
Game Feed
Game Feed Prieš mėn
2:46 that’s not a cybertruck is it...
Game Feed
Game Feed Prieš mėn
Wait there is a risk of 1:55 000 by walking outside???? I don’t think I wanna be outside anymore...
Zeb Brennan
Zeb Brennan Prieš mėn
Stalin : one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic.
Daniel DuVernay
Daniel DuVernay Prieš mėn
when he talks about getting hit by a car it's a cybertruck.
NicholsZiegler Prieš 2 mėnesius
Why I have the impression that many videos are supported by nuclear power industry? On Chernobyl or Fukushima beside direct death of people it was also soil,water and air contamination which increases risk of cancer. Soil will be contami ated for a long time. The same is with climate change, people think of nice weather, but effect can be severe drought
Nicholas Brassard
Nicholas Brassard Prieš 2 mėnesius
2:50 there are a lot more people that drive than there are people who mountain bike, so I think the odds could be skewed due to the small sample size, no?
Colton Golobish
Colton Golobish Prieš 2 mėnesius
you should seriously make a RISK VIDEO THAT TEACHES US TO PLAY RISK !!!!! MANY PEOPL THOUGHT THIS WAS HOW TO PLAY THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Colton Golobish
Colton Golobish Prieš 2 mėnesius
@ART ! no i wont theres even dice on the picture
ART ! Prieš 2 mėnesius
Please calm down it’s his channel
User 007513
User 007513 Prieš 2 mėnesius
What is this, some kind of game theory? Anybody catch the double entendre? Of course they did...everyone on the internet is SUCH A NERD!
TwitchyTopHat Prieš 2 mėnesius
Came for board games. Got existentialism instead
S. Christopher Burford
S. Christopher Burford Prieš 2 mėnesius
I expected this to be about the board game. Disappointed.
ahab_dota Prieš 2 mėnesius
you fail to mention that just because ur fighting in vietnam, ur not immune to disease or accident, u just added a diceroll ontop
Kurbo Prieš 2 mėnesius
This is way too "Did you know we all have flawed perceptions, you dumb ape" for my liking
Steezboy3000 Prieš 2 mėnesius
With mountain biking you also didn't include the incredibly high risk of injury of mountain biking. Just because theres a low risk of death, doesn't mean it doesn't carry significant risks. Chopping a finger off probably carries a relatively low risk of death, doesn't mean that its safe or that the outcome doesn't matter just because its not death. Any mountain biker will proudly tell you the litany of injuries they've accumulated through the sport. Same with football. Risk of death is low, risk of an injury that follows you around for life is a lot higher.
Skylon Prieš 2 mėnesius
By living, you risk dying. Every second you live, is another second closer to death. Together, we can stop this.
Lucky Luke
Lucky Luke Prieš 2 mėnesius
Using today's data yes, you are more likely to die driving a car than riding a mountain bike. But if everybody mountain biked as much as they drove I doubt mountain biking would be safer. To put it in other words : I'm willing to bet driving for an hour is less likely to injure or kill me than mountain biking for an hour. Not saying human perception of danger isn't flawed. Just saying driving VS mountain biking is a bad example.
TAILƎS LUONG Prieš 2 mėnesius
Person A: skydives every day, parkours across volcanoes for fun, dies at 80 Person B: stays at home all day, dies at 30 due to cancer
fivefootten Prieš 2 mėnesius
1 in 600. Yeah no. Fix your video
Cyan Prieš 2 mėnesius
Read the pinned comment
Mario Garciduenas
Mario Garciduenas Prieš 2 mėnesius
yes, but also the amount of people driving, vs the amount of people riding mountain bikes is radically and unmistakably different.
Cameron Rogers
Cameron Rogers Prieš 2 mėnesius
Rule 5 is why some people are unwilling to tolerate a slight risk of an allergic reaction to a COVID vaccine but argue that COVID is not killing people faster then they would normally die. No one has died from a vaccine but millions have died from the disease.
Black Bananas
Black Bananas Prieš 2 mėnesius
Haven’t watched the video but having read the rule sheet for Risk I’m pretty sure the game has more than 5 rules
Xavier Your Savior
Xavier Your Savior Prieš 2 mėnesius
Comparing driving, a situation where there’s literally millions you Pass each day with hill biking, an event which has a way lower number of people isn’t a good analogy to compare “risk factor”
Xandar YT
Xandar YT Prieš 2 mėnesius
2:44 cybertruck xD
sophia loli
sophia loli Prieš 2 mėnesius
lol this video totally called out corona and all the bs now the flawed preseption of risk made for others
Sven Bro
Sven Bro Prieš 2 mėnesius
With the example of comparing driving and mountain biking: It is not just about death but also about the risk of hurting yourself.
mcv86 Prieš 2 mėnesius
3:10 - Driving might be more riskier than mountain biking in the sense that you are more likely to get into an accident. But at the same time, since you defined risk in terms of balance of negatives and positives, people are more likely to get more positives out of driving.
Deltarious Prieš 2 mėnesius
The logic in the intro is incorrect and false. It presupposes that one's reason for going outside isn't directly linked in some way to their continued survival, and thus that one is *required* to take on some short term risk in order to guarantee longer term survival. If you wait long enough inside doing nothing, the risk of death becomes so high due to factors such as, you know, starvation, that the risk of going outside is smaller than the risk of staying inside and doing nothing about it. Remember, that you assented that one should choose *never* to go outside. It also completely disregards the notion that one's mental well being is tied directly to their ability to continue their own life and thus in order to preserve one's self at least some level of risk must be accepted or else the risk of serious mental harm and thus eventually of death is also present (I am of course assuming that for the vast majority of people some level of physical and/or social contact is required and not optional). Thus it is entirely false to claim that one cannot value their own life infinitely based on this logic alone, as each time your infinite multiplication is cancelled out by being balanced against infinite value of actions taken with the ultimate outcome of preserving the self. It is true, however, that most people do not value themselves truly infinitely, as there is an inherent concept of 'living a life worth living' for most people. However your logic is just flat wrong.
elweasel2010 Prieš 2 mėnesius
Damn, I thought this was about the game Risk.
Drifyt Prieš 2 mėnesius
but you forgot the main thing here, the average person (the vast majority of people) will not know the risk odds so its a null/flawed point. So you are half there.
Sedat Mehmed
Sedat Mehmed Prieš 2 mėnesius
There are some problems with your calculations of perceived risk. But first - our risk perception is NOT flawed. It works as intended but it is suited for life in nature not in civilization. That explains almost everything bizarre about it. 1. Walking outside - in the nature walking has risk but this risk is small if you are in a familiar area - you know if there are predators or other dangers. In the nature there aren't fast moving 2 tonne objects to crush you. Loud car sounds aren't natural - you can recognize a galloping predator by its distinct noise. In our streets the noise is normal so we don't pay attention to it and the environment feels safe. 2. Mountain biking vs driving a car on the roads - moving fast with your body basically exposed in Rocky hills is definition of danger in the nature. There is very high risk of getting injuries. Remember we perceive and asses the risk of injuries too not just death. Braking a leg in the nature is almost equal to dying - you can't move, find water, food or shelter and you are guaranteed to die if there is no one to help you which was probably the case back in the ancient times. In a car you are protected by the vehicle from some injuries which gives a sense of security. I had two car crashes with both vehicles totalled and I had absolutely no injuries. Also the calculations are skewed by the level of professionalism in both activities - regular mountain bikers are much more experienced in this activity than drivers. People drive of necessity but ride bikes because of passion and that pushes them to get better. Also if you don't feel good you don't go biking but you drive around. And you drive every day opposed to biking which you plan ahead and do only whenever you want it. If you look in the statistics and compare the risk of driving a motorcycle and a car you will see that pretty much lines up with our natural perception of risk. 3. The diminishing perceived tragedy of large number of people dying. People don't have a natural sense of scale for large numbers. It is really hard for someone to imagine a million people but far less so to imagine 50. Also as you mentioned with increased death count every life becomes less valuable. 4. Perceived risk of unknown - it makes a lot of sense in the nature. In unknown terrain you don't know what and where are the dangers to you. If you go back to the walking on the streets you feel more safe in your town/city/village even in the dark backstreets rather than in a foreign place where you tend to stick to main roads and avoid unknown streets and roads.
David Gonzales
David Gonzales Prieš 2 mėnesius
“Why do you walk outside?” Me, an introvert: I don’t have such weaknesses
Sat SSAT Prieš 2 mėnesius
2/8 of the references work (1 needs ID, 5 are 404 error) -.-
mwmwmwmwmmdw Prieš 2 mėnesius
this video makes me want a nice cool bRisk
DarkPope666 Prieš 2 mėnesius
Living is the leading cause of death.
IAmPattycakes Prieš 2 mėnesius
Funny, talking about going outside while in Corona times.
floxy20 Prieš 2 mėnesius
When I hear someone say: "If we can save only one life we should..." followed by some asinine restriction, I want to reach for my revolver.
Aaron Loosen
Aaron Loosen Prieš 2 mėnesius
Hey LTlost thanks for recommending me this after I missed getting hi by a car from 1 metres
Madtrack Prieš 2 mėnesius
I actually agree with this. Bruh
phonvoli ormogwey
phonvoli ormogwey Prieš 2 mėnesius
"Voluntary risk" of driving. Hahahahahaha. Americans really delude themselves thinking they can go outside in their sprawling isolation country without driving. You have, like, 3 trains, 5 buses and 1 tram in the whole entire country of over 300 million people. And uber costs an arm and a leg, you're not gonna use it to go to the convenience store or commute to work every day.
Emir Ercan
Emir Ercan Prieš 2 mėnesius
I am so amused with the idea of _1:600 chance of death-vending machine_
EsotericBeep Prieš 3 mėnesius
The mountain biking example is misleading. The statistic of death is so low BECAUSE its regarded as being dangerous whereas driving doesn't have the same level of deterrence. Which means only careful and skilled people mountain bike whereas people of all skill levels drive. If people of all skill levels mountain biked I can assure you there would be quite a bit more deaths.
Arthur Ramos
Arthur Ramos Prieš 3 mėnesius
Shit man. Thought i was going to learn how to play Risk.
StillSalty Prieš 3 mėnesius
Ah yes the graphic at 9:30 theres where the multi rail drift comes in
Julian Jet
Julian Jet Prieš 3 mėnesius
Is it normal that I initially thought it was the board game
Joan Historillo
Joan Historillo Prieš 3 mėnesius
The beginning of emos 0:00
Icee Frags
Icee Frags Prieš 3 mėnesius
cybertruck at 1:11
wlewis19760 Prieš 3 mėnesius
No, infinity times "anything" is not infinity. Infinity times 0 is always 0.
morningbrew Prieš 3 mėnesius
morningbrew Prieš 3 mėnesius
opening line, wandering outside. we all life on the outside. dusgusting
MineCrafterCity Prieš 3 mėnesius
This is exactly the problem I have with the corona virus only the governement stops me from taking the risks.
Itz -xRhino
Itz -xRhino Prieš 3 mėnesius
first question is so stupid- mountain biking is far more dangerous. 💀 a 13 year old can drive
ViskaDrake Prieš 3 mėnesius
There is a huge flaw in your view on the risk evaluation between mountain biking and driving. If everyone who drives decided to start mountain biking with skill and knowledge of mountain biking at comparable levels to their driving skill, the mountain biking death rate would go up through the introduction of low-skill hobbyists. People also don't get the opportunity to drink and mountain bike, or text while mountain biking. There's also the fact that people drive everywhere, people don't mountain bike to and from work but they do drive, so there's a huge difference in frequency of the activity.
Sonofawil Prieš 3 mėnesius
Risk isn’t the “balance of negatives and positives”. It’s the measurement of exposure to potential loss or harm.
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